Euro Cup: England vs Denmark! Master these key points, and you'll naturally know how to choose.

Yesterday, we said the stamina of the two Juventus veterans from Italy was a major weakness, didn’t we? Once they couldn't keep up, Spain easily broke through the middle.

Not bad, the 1-1 scoreline was exactly as we expected.

Today, our first topic is the Euro Cup match: England against Denmark!

For other matches, I often root for the underdogs and hope for some upsets.

But for this game, I dare not be stubborn, because UEFA seems almost biased in favor of England winning the championship.

Look at how much advantage they have given England!

First, the referee is Mark Clattenburg!

This Euro Cup already has very lenient refereeing; fouls that used to earn yellow cards now only get called as fouls.

UEFA even brought in a group of infamous blind referees, like the "Fantastic Four Blind" Oliver

and the "Maning-possessed" Brych, all of whom fans dread.

Mark Clattenburg is even more extreme — goals can be disallowed,

and fouls that should be penalties are simply ignored.

Everyone knows the English Premier League is one of the toughest leagues in the world, and England’s team is mostly EPL players. Having the most lenient referee in the world officiate is a huge win for England.

Then, this is England’s home ground.

Look at Denmark: first from Copenhagen to the Netherlands, then 3200 kilometers crossing 3 time zones to Azerbaijan, and then 3800 kilometers crossing 4 time zones to London. In their last three matches, they traveled over 7500 kilometers — almost like going from Beijing to Guangzhou four times.

This kind of match scheduling is simply outrageous. And they only got four days of rest — forget about training to adjust, just sitting on planes has exhausted them.

Meanwhile, England played 5 out of 6 matches at Wembley, with no need to adapt to different time zones or climates. In terms of fitness and familiarity with the venue, they have the best conditions among all teams.

Let’s not even debate who is stronger between England and Denmark. Even if both teams were equal in strength, who would you support? Of course, the one with the big advantage, right?

Moreover, there is a clear difference in their abilities.

Yes, Denmark’s three consecutive wins are impressive, scoring 10 goals in 3 games, which looks fierce and attracts fans’ support.

However, this might just be an illusion. Their record involves luck and external factors.

According to OPTA’s big data, Denmark’s expected goals (xG) is only 5.3, while their opponents’ expected goals total 3.7.

Performing so much better than expected means that besides good play, luck clearly played a part.

Also, Denmark has received mysterious support.

The previous match against Wales is another story — although the referee was clearly biased, Denmark was genuinely stronger.

The last game against the Czech Republic was very obvious; if you look only at the data, Czech dominated.

Dangerous attacks 48 to 32, shots 16 to 11, expected goals 1.57 to 1.48... theoretically, such stats should mean at least a draw for Czech.

Where did Czech lose? They picked a starting lineup not suited for pressing and conceded too early.

Why did they concede so early? Because of a referee mistake.

Denmark’s goal in the 5th minute came directly from a wrongly awarded corner kick by the referee.

Throughout the match, decisions also went against Czech: two Czech players were hit in the head, another had to be stretchered off, yet Denmark committed ten fouls and didn’t receive a single yellow card.

The most outrageous moment was in the 83rd minute when Czech player Vidra was brought down by three Danish players near the penalty area — a free kick should have been given, but the referee not only refused, he gave a yellow card to the protesting Czech player.

Without luck and referee influence, Denmark might not be much stronger than Czech.

As for England, when playing Czech, although not serious and Kane barely touched the ball (only 46 touches, the lowest), England still completely dominated.

Expected goals 1.49 to 0.31, Czech had almost no chance to fight back. The difference with Denmark’s performance is obvious.

How to put it? England’s four times higher market value than Denmark clearly makes a difference.

By now, it’s quite clear who is stronger, who has the advantage, and who is at a disadvantage.

If you don’t support the stronger side with all these external benefits and instead hope for an upset, it might be risky.

I lean towards England winning within 90 minutes and successfully advancing!

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will still send text analysis in the afternoon. Feel free to ask me if anything is unclear.

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