UEFA Nations League: Italy vs Germany, a battle of the remnants! How can Italy withstand the German machine?

Today's first topic continues with the UEFA Nations League: Italy vs Germany!

When Italy was defeated by North Macedonia, many supporters believed it was due to underperformance or bad luck, and they did not question the European champions’ capabilities much.

But after being thoroughly beaten by Argentina the other day, Italy’s last veil of dignity was lifted — they simply lack the ability.

Can the “miracle coach” Mancini lead the team out of this crisis once again?

Many might argue: Italy played with so many substitutes against Argentina recently, so naturally they didn’t look strong.

Yes, that’s true. But even if Italy had their full-strength squad, would they really be much stronger?

What is Italy’s lineup situation today?

Compared to the European Championship final, they are missing x starters:

All three forwards in the front line are absent: the most talented Chiesa, European Golden Shoe winner Immobile, and the diminutive Insigne are all out.

Two midfielders are missing: UEFA MVP Barella and Verratti.

In defense, Chiellini and Emerson are absent; although Chiellini is the oldest, he remains the most reliable defender.

I’ve looked at many predictions, and the most trustworthy is from Bild, which forecasts Italy’s starting lineup tonight as follows.

This group, overall, is relatively weak compared to top international teams. For example, the starting center forward Scamacca’s club, Sassuolo, doesn’t even qualify for European competitions.

Actually, even during the European Championship, Italy’s starting lineup couldn’t be considered among Europe’s elite.

They relied on Mancini’s brilliant tactics and the players’ relentless effort.

But Mancini’s tactics are now somewhat figured out; the offense is increasingly difficult, having been shut out by Northern Ireland and North Macedonia consecutively. Injuries are also piling up, and now even the defense is unreliable.

The players have also lost the unstoppable spirit they had during the European Championship. Italy often faces this problem — after achieving a major success, they tend to slump for a while. For example, after winning the 2006 World Cup, they collapsed at Euro 2008 and finished bottom of their group in the 2010 World Cup, even worse than New Zealand.

Now that Italy has no World Cup mission, continuing with the old and aging starting lineup is pointless; Mancini needs to start rebuilding.

The awkward fact is that the new generation of Italian players lacks overall quality. For instance, Italy U21 coach Nicolato complains there are too few usable young players in Serie A, forcing him to pick from Serie B clubs. Italy U21 currently only manages draws against Montenegro in the European U21 qualifiers and might fail to advance from the group stage.

Facing these issues, Mancini is also troubled; even the best cook can’t cook without ingredients.

According to reports from Corriere della Sera, he somewhat regrets not resigning last year.

On the other hand, Germany’s situation is completely different.

Since Flick took over in August last year, they have won 8 out of 9 matches, drawing only once against the Netherlands.

The Netherlands are a strong team — their attack aside, their defense led by Van Dijk and De Ligt is top quality. For Germany to score an away goal against them is quite impressive.

Flick is, in my opinion, the strongest national team coach. He was a key figure behind Germany’s 2014 World Cup win, having developed their deadly set-piece tactics.

In 2019, he was urgently appointed as Bayern’s interim coach and won the second-ever sextuple in history in his second season. How strong is such a coach? His impact cannot be measured by statistics alone.

Today, Germany has an advantage — more preparation time.

Because the Bundesliga finished earliest, on May 14th, a week earlier than Italy’s league.

Flick said: "We have prepared thoroughly in Marbella and aim to beat Italy with our best team."

Germany’s pressing intensity is extremely fierce, their physical confrontations strong, and their pace top-notch. Given this long rest and preparation period, they could be very dangerous.

Will Flick get his wish? What do you all think? I’m looking forward to Germany winning the match.

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will still provide written analyses for you this evening. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. “Watch the game with understanding,” see you then!

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