UEFA Nations League: Hungary vs Italy! One thing beats another, why is it said that Italy has a natural advantage over Hungary?

Today's first discussion is about the UEFA Nations League: Hungary vs Italy!

Hungary, the dark horse, currently leads Group C and only needs a draw to qualify.

It looks like they have the strategic upper hand, but is that truly beneficial?

"A draw is enough to advance" is a curse not only for the Chinese team but also a common phenomenon globally.

For example, in last year's World Cup qualifiers, in Group A’s final round, Portugal played Serbia with the same "a draw suffices" scenario, yet Portugal failed to even secure a draw.

In such "a draw is enough" situations, teams tend to play more cautiously, become more anxious, and often cannot perform at their best.

When Hungary was drawn into Group C, the so-called group of death, they actually had little psychological burden — just do their best, and even if relegated, fans wouldn't harshly criticize them, so no pressure.

But now, with the glory of reaching the Nations League semifinals within reach, their mentality might shift.

Although Group C looks intimidating, England and Germany are basically just going through the motions; only Italy is taking it seriously.

As for England, let's not even talk about them—they've lost all dignity.

Germany is currently facing some issues.

Previously, we discussed Hungary’s defensive style, which involves heavily concentrating players in the center, surrounding the opponent’s striker in two layers, denying them any receiving opportunities.

To face such a team, it’s necessary to fully exploit both flanks to stretch Hungary’s defense and create openings.

So why did Flick still choose the 4-2-3-1 formation, which is weakest on the wings, instead of the stronger wing-based 3-4-3?

Because Kimmich is unwilling to play as a right wing-back, and Flick dislikes Gosens on the left wing-back position.

Both players can actually perform well as wing-backs.

Last year, under Löw’s leadership, in the European Championship match against Portugal, they used a 3-4-3 formation with these two as wing-backs, contributing one goal and two assists in that game alone, which was very effective.

But in a less significant competition like the Nations League, Kimmich is reluctant to compromise.

Italy, however, does not have this problem.

Since the European Championship, they have consistently emphasized wing play.

For instance, their last match against England used a 3-5-2 formation, which maximizes field width and relies heavily on wing attacks; they are specialists at wing play.

They have many professional wing-backs, like Dimarco, Inter Milan’s starting left wing-back. Unlike Germany, they don’t have to convert players to wing-back roles.

Why is Italy the only one among the three world-class teams in Group C to have beaten Hungary? This is no coincidence.

The last time, Italy completely overwhelmed Hungary from the wings, leading by two goals in the first half, making it a relatively easy win.

Objectively, Hungary’s total squad value is just over 90 million euros, the lowest among all Group A teams, only one-seventh of Italy’s and one-fourteenth of England’s.

If you can pull Hungary’s formation apart and create more one-on-one situations, the difference in individual quality will become apparent.

Italy, a four-time World Cup champion, has missed the last two World Cups.

Currently, the Nations League is their only national team honor to pursue and their sole path to redeem their shame.

Mancini’s squad this time isn’t filled with stars; players like Dimarco and Acerbi aren’t big names, but they share a common trait: loyalty, passion, and a serious attitude toward the game.

Hungary, to a large extent, also relies on a serious attitude.

Are they really that strong in terms of hard skills? If they were, why did the same group finish only fourth in last year’s World Cup qualifiers?

Their performance was worse than Albania’s and only better than Andorra and San Marino, ranked last in the world.

Taking everything into account, with a significant overall strength gap and Italy’s tactical style unfazed by Hungary, will the "a draw is enough" curse strike again? What do you think? Xiaojiu hopes Italy will secure all three points.

Alright, for today’s other matches, Xiaojiu will still send out text analyses in the evening. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. Let’s "watch football and understand it" together—don’t miss it!

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