J.League: Kawasaki Frontale vs. Júbilo Iwata! Three losses in five games, so bad — why do I still support Kawasaki?

Today’s first match to discuss is the J.League game at 18:00: Kawasaki Frontale vs. Júbilo Iwata!

Last season they transferred out Kaoru Mitoma and Hidemasa Morita; this season Reo Hatate and Ao Tanaka left. Kawasaki, who exports core players abroad annually, has finally reached its limit this season.

In their last five matches, they lost three times. A few days ago, even a J2 team dominated them embarrassingly. It’s truly a bit shameful. Can they respond today?

Fans all know Kawasaki has lost too many key players and is no longer as strong as before.

Kawasaki themselves realize this, so they have decided to forgo the cup competitions and focus fully on winning a third consecutive league title.

Actually, it’s not like Kawasaki is that bad; at least if they give their all, it’s unlikely they’d be eliminated by a J2 team at home.

The main issue is they don’t really prioritize this — 11 starters, 9 positions rotated. It’s clear they’re taking a “win or lose, elimination is fine” attitude.

Kawasaki’s current main squad is aging badly; stars like Yu Kobayashi, Damian, and Akihiro Ienaga, who once dominated Japan, are now at the end of their careers.

The Japanese schedule is very tough and unpredictable — they often play in extremely hot midday weather, with a tight fixture list.

Kawasaki played three matches in eight days. These veteran players can’t give their all every game. Since they slacked off last match, it was to save energy for today’s game.

Now, let me highlight a characteristic of Kawasaki.

This season, Kawasaki’s running ability is very poor, averaging 110 kilometers per game, second to last in the J.League.

If they face teams with very strong running ability, like Yokohama F. Marinos, Shonan Bellmare, or Sagan Tosu — all top three in running — Kawasaki struggles, being chased and blocked all game, unable to perform.

But against opponents with poor running ability, Kawasaki’s technical advantages shine.

This chart shows the bottom eight teams in running distance in J.League. From 18th-ranked Avispa Fukuoka to 12th-ranked Vissel Kobe, six teams have faced Kawasaki this season—and Kawasaki hasn’t lost a single match against them!

Júbilo Iwata ranks 11th from the bottom; will they be an exception?

Júbilo plays a defensive counterattack style.

Their coach, Akira Ito, led Kofu Wind last season, nicknamed the “turtle” for their very cautious counterattacking approach.

But Kawasaki hasn’t been fazed by that style in recent years. Look at how they handled the notoriously defensive Avispa Fukuoka — they’re not afraid of dense defense at all.

Check out their two goals: top-level one-two passes and penetrating runs, plus first-rate set-piece skills. How can dense defense stop that? It’s tough.

In short, if you try hard to restrict Kawasaki by chasing and pressuring them high up the pitch, these older players will struggle.

But if you park the bus in the penalty area... that’s actually Kawasaki’s most comfortable rhythm.

This season, fewer fans call Kawasaki the “Munich of Japan.” Their poor performance in the last five matches has made many fans uneasy.

However, they deliberately rested players in a cup match just to focus their energy today.

If they can achieve a three-peat, it will be a legendary honor in Japanese football history — a truly great goal.

Today they face Júbilo, a type of opponent they prefer. Will they hold back? What do you think? I’m looking forward to them breaking through the defense.

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will still send out text analyses in the evening. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. Let’s “watch and understand the game” together — don’t miss it!

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