FA Cup: Derby County vs West Ham United! A 20-fold difference in market value, why is Derby County favored?

Today’s first match to discuss is the FA Cup: Derby County vs West Ham United!

League One against Premier League, £20 million compared to £470 million in market value, over 20 times difference.

Many West Ham starters alone have a value equal to one or two full Derby County teams, an almost suffocating disparity.

However, this match poses a serious challenge for West Ham.

Like Coventry, Derby County has been revived after being bought by local businessmen who are also devoted fans.

The difference from Coventry is that Derby was acquired earlier and has had more time to gel.

Recently, they have gone unbeaten in 19 official matches straight, even managing not to lose when visiting Liverpool—such morale and teamwork are essential to achieve this.

Although their primary goal is promotion, when you stay unbeaten for 19 games, no one says “let’s give up this match and focus on promotion.” Since they are playing a league game just two days later against Liverpool, there is no reason to hold back tonight.

Moreover, they have a tough manager, Paul Warne, who has led Rotherham to promotion from League One three times in five years.

Promotion is not easy, but bouncing back immediately with a championship or runner-up spot after relegation is very difficult.

Warne is an expert at motivating players; after relegation, he tells them, “You have two choices: leave the team or endure a hellish 10 months.” He also uses things like a ‘wall of victory’ to inspire the squad.

This kind of attitude towards matches is quite credible.

West Ham is really short on forwards today.

They have only three reliable strikers in total; Scamacca and the newly signed Ings are both unavailable, leaving just Antonio.

But Antonio has wanted to leave since early this season.

On one hand, his form is poor, with more substitute appearances than starts this season.

On the other hand, his relationship with Moyes has deteriorated, and West Ham signed so many strikers to replace him.

Tonight could very well be his last game for West Ham.

His fitness is currently poor, often unable to play the full match, and West Ham has no backup striker. If he runs out of stamina, they might have to use attacking midfielder Fornals as a makeshift striker like they did against Brentford, which reduces their offensive threat.

Additionally, to raise funds for new signings, West Ham sold their key center-back Dawson to Wolves last week.

Now with main center-back Zouma injured, their defensive lineup is quite tight tonight.

Interestingly, Moyes ranks as the third worst Premier League manager in winter transfer window performance, which relates to his poor transfer skills.

While other clubs are reinforcing their squads this winter, West Ham, just one point above the relegation zone, has only signed Ings, who got injured shortly after arriving...

The club has already invested £194 million in players this season to support Moyes, yet this is the result? His position as manager is probably unstable, so does he really have the mindset to focus on the cup?

A team with poor morale and an insecure manager is tough to play against even if they have strong players, especially when facing lower-ranked teams full of confidence.

Derby County’s performance this season has won back fans’ affection, with an average attendance of 27,000, the highest in League One.

Can they satisfy their home crowd tonight? What do you think? We hope they avoid defeat in regular time.

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will send text analyses in the evening. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. “Watch football and understand it,” see you then!

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